Hindsight

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hindsight (noun) definition and synonyms | Macmillan Dictionary

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Hindsight Bluegrass

Popular search terms to provide approach issue Angebot consider Vorschlag Termin. The therapist did not warn the other individual of the possible danger. Participants were each given one of three possible outcomes; the threatened individual either received no injuries, minor injuries, or serious injuries.

Participants were then asked to determine if the doctor should be considered negligent.

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Participants in the "serious injuries" condition were not only more likely to rate the therapist as negligent but also rated the attack as more foreseeable. Participants in the no injuries and minor injury categories were more likely to see the therapist's actions as reasonable. The role of surprise can help explain the malleability of hindsight bias. Surprise influences how the mind reconstructs pre-outcome predictions in three ways:. Pezzo's sense-making model supports two contradicting ideas of a surprising outcome.

The results can show a lesser hindsight bias or possibly a reversed effect, where the individual believes the outcome wasn't a possibility at all, or the outcome can lead to the hindsight bias being magnified to have a stronger effect. The sense-making process is triggered by an initial surprise. If the sense-making process does not complete and the sensory information is not detected or coded, the sensation is experienced as a surprise and the hindsight bias has a gradual reduction.

When there is a lack of a sense-making process, the phenomena of reversed hindsight bias is created.


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Without the sense-making process being present, there is no remnant of thought about the surprise, therefore leading to a sensation of not believing the outcome as a possibility. Along with the emotion of surprise, personality traits affect hindsight bias. A new integrative lens model is an approach to figure out the bias and accuracy in human inferences due to their individual personality traits. This model integrates on accurate personality judgments and hindsight effects as a by-product of knowledge updating.

During the study, three processes showed potential to explain the occurrence of hindsight effects in personality judgments:. After two studies, it was clear that there were hindsight effects for each of the "Big Five" personality dimensions. Evidence was found that both the utilization of more valid cues and changes in cue perceptions, but not changes in the consistency with which cue knowledge is applied account for the hindsight effects. During both studies, participants were presented with target pictures and were asked to judge each target's levels of the Big Five. It is more difficult to test for hindsight bias in children than adults because the verbal methods used in experiments on adults are too complex for children to understand, let alone measure bias.

There have been some experimental procedures created with visual identification to test children in a way they can grasp. Methods with visual images start by presenting a blurry image that becomes clearer over time. In some conditions, the subjects know what the final object is, and in others they don't. In cases where the subject knows what the object shape will become when the image is clear, they are asked to estimate the amount of time other participants of similar age will take to guess what the object is.

Due to hindsight bias, the estimated times are often much lower than the actual times because the participant is using their knowledge while making their estimate. These types of studies have presented results that show that the hindsight bias affects children as well as adults.

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Hindsight bias in adults and in children shares a core cognitive constraint. Children have a theory of mind , which is their mental state of reasoning. Hindsight bias is a fundamental problem in cognitive perspective-taking. After reviewing developmental literature on hindsight bias and other limitations, it was found that some of children's limitation in the theory of mind may stem from the same core component as hindsight bias. This key factor brings forth underlying mechanisms.

A developmental approach is necessary for a comprehensive understanding of the nature of hindsight bias in social cognition. Another topic that affects the function of hindsight bias is the auditory function of humans.

Submission history

To test the effects of auditory distractions on hindsight bias, four experiments were completed. Experiment one included plain words, in which low-pass filters were used to reduce the amplitude for sounds of consonants; thereby, making the words more degraded. In the hindsight estimation task, a warning tone was presented before the clear word followed by the degraded version of the word. Experiment two included words with explicit warnings of the hindsight bias.

It followed the same procedure as experiment one, however, the participants were informed and asked not to complete the same error. Experiment three included full sentences of degraded words rather than individual words. Experiment four included less-degraded words in order to make the words easier to understand and identify to the participants. By using these different techniques, it offers a different range of detection and evaluates the ecological validity of the effect.

As a result, speakers tend to overestimate the clarity of their message while listeners tend to overestimate their understanding of ambiguous messages. This miscommunication stems from hindsight bias, which then creates a feeling of inevitability. Overall, this auditory hindsight bias occurs despite people's effort to avoid it.

To understand how a person can so easily change the foundation of knowledge and belief for events after receiving new information, three cognitive models of hindsight bias have been reviewed. They suffer from the hindsight bias due to selective activation or biased sampling of that set of images. Basically, people only remember small, select amounts of information—and when asked to recall it later, use that biased image to support their own opinions about the situation. The set of images is originally processed in the brain when first experienced.


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When remembered, this image reactivates, and the mind can edit and alter the memory, which takes place in hindsight bias when new and correct information is presented, leading one to believe that this new information when remembered at a later time is the persons original memory. Due to this reactivation in the brain, a more permanent memory trace can be created. The new information acts as a memory anchor causing retrieval impairment.

The RAFT model [25] explains hindsight bias with comparisons of objects using knowledge-based probability then applying interpretations to those probabilities. An example case is someone comparing the size of two cities. If they know one city well e. They then "take the best" option in their assessment of their own probabilities. For example, they recognize a city due to knowing of its sports team, and thus they assume that that city has the highest population.

RAFT is a by-product of adaptive learning. Feedback information updates a person's knowledge base.

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This can lead a person to be unable to retrieve the initial information, since the information cue has been replaced by a cue that they thought was more fitting. The "best" cue has been replaced, and the person only remembers the answer that is most likely and believes that they thought this was the best point the whole time. Both SARA and RAFT descriptions include a memory trace impairment or cognitive distortion that is caused by feedback of information and reconstruction of memory. CMT is a non-formal theory based on work by many researchers to create a collaborative process model for hindsight bias that involves event outcomes.

This can give that person the idea that the event outcome was inevitable and there was nothing that could take place to prevent it from happening. CMT can be caused by a discrepancy between a person's expectation of the event and the reality of an outcome. They consciously want to make sense of what has happened and selectively retrieve memory that supports the current outcome.

The causal attribution can be motivated by wanting to feel more positive about the outcome, and possibly themselves. Are people liars or are they tricking themselves into believing that they knew the right answer? These models would show that memory distortions and personal bias play a role. Hindsight bias has similarities to other memory distortions, such as misinformation effect and false autobiographical memory. This is an important issue with eyewitness testimony.

False autobiographical memory takes place when suggestions or additional outside information is provided to distort and change memory of events; this can also lead to false memory syndrome. At times this can lead to creation of new memories that are completely false and have not taken place.

All three of these memory distortions contain a three-stage procedure. Stage one is different between the three paradigms , although all involve an event, an event that has taken place misinformation effect , an event that has not taken place false autobiographical memory , and a judgment made by a person about an event that must be remembered hindsight bias.

Stage two consists of more information that is received by the person after the event has taken place.